Vizier Quarterly Review, Q2 2025
A review of Vizier's reports published between April and June, 2025, covering Syria, Morocco, Tunisia, Qatar, the Arab Gulf, and the Indian Ocean.
Quarterly Review
In Q2 2025, Vizier has published 11 reports, covering Syria, Morocco, Tunisia, Qatar, the Arab Gulf States, and the Indian Ocean. This quarterly review summarises published reports to date, Vizier’s publishing schedule for the near future, and emerging themes as MENA becomes an increasingly consequential arena within the wider multipolar order that is now, with fire and fury, finally here.
Syria
In State Capitalism with Syrian Characteristics, we propose an alternative mode of development for Syria, moving away from hermetic state socialism and neoliberalism towards a form of ‘state capitalism’ best embodied by the principles and practices of the East Asian states. While Syria cannot copy them, its government can draw lessons from the East Asian miracle to focus on what really drives development: a competent economic bureaucracy providing the state with the capacity to create harmonious state-market relations. This will require Syria to ignore the ‘neoliberal prescription’ usually provided by institutions like the IMF and World Bank to developing countries, and chart its own, unique course towards development.
In Towards a Syrian Political Economy of Productive Powers, we explore the ideas of the German-American economist Friedrich List and how his ‘theory of productive powers’ provides an alternative perspective on the true source of national prosperity. As opposed to maximising comparative advantage, Syria should seek to cultivate the productive powers of the nation, and aspire to become a nation “skilled-in-making” valuable goods and services, rather than merely “skilled-in-turning a profit”.
In Lessons from East Asian Land Reform for Syria, we draw lessons from the importance of land reform to East Asia’s economic success and why Syria should pursue it as a matter of urgency. Not just a matter of economic returns, land reform enables the decisive shift from a feudalistic to a modern political economy.
North Africa
In Kais Saied’s Developmentalist Gamble, we look at the Tunisian President Kais Saied’s gamble for economic reform and development to solve Tunisia’s endemic poverty and dysfunction. Having abolished Tunisia’s ailing democratic experiment and restored an authoritarian system of governance, Saied has struggled to build support among Tunisia’s elites, intelligentsia, and wider population for his program of ‘state capitalism with Tunisian characteristics’. If he fails at reforming Tunisia’s political economy, his sole legacy will be the return of authoritarianism.
In Morocco Builds an Empire in West Africa, we explore how Morocco is filling the vacuum left by France’s retreat from the Françafrique – France’s zone of influence in West Africa – by purchasing French companies, creating trade ties with West African states, and building infrastructure that is turning Morocco into the primary contact point between West Africa and Europe. Morocco is an interesting case study of the emergence of ‘middle powers’ in the multipolar order, carving out regional zones of interest – if not outright hegemony – in the wake of imperial retreat.
In How Morocco Built an Automotive Industry from Scratch, we trace the remarkable rise of Morocco’s automotive industry as a product of industrial policy implemented by King Mohammed VI. Starting from humble beginnings in the late 2000s, Morocco developed a partnership with Carlos Ghosn of Nissan to encourage foreign firm investment into Morocco’s nascent automotive industry. Encouraged by proactive government support in the form of cutting through bureaucratic barriers, generous subsidies and low taxation, Morocco has become the primary car exporter to Europe, second only after China in sheer volume but first in total value. Whether Morocco can truly reap the benefits of developing an automotive manufacturing industry will depend on concentrated state support for the private sector to climb the value chain and bring more research and development “in-house”.
The Arab Gulf
In Qatar’s Gas-Powered Statecraft Reaches New Heights, we write the story and evolution of Qatar from a backwater emirate in the 1990s to a globally influential powerhouse for media and diplomacy. But this is not a natural evolution: Qatar has faced numerous challenges over the years, including the most serious threats to its stability after its strategic retreat in the Arab Spring, and the subsequent Arab Blockade against Qatar (2017-2021). Qatar is now once again on the rise, buoyed by a successful World Cup hosted in Doha (2022) and a new strategy focused on turning Doha into a global centre for diplomatic mediation.
In Davos to Dubai: the Gulf States Outcompete Switzerland, we uncover how three Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE – are cannibalising Switzerland’s traditional role as a global centre of finance, trade, and diplomacy. As the centre of global trade (and power) shifts eastward, the Gulf states are priming themselves to become the world’s new centres of finance, trade, and diplomacy, leaving an all-too comfortable Switzerland in the lurch, which has been slow to evolve from its prime position acquired during the heydays of the 20th century.
General Areas
In A New Corridor Emerges in the Middle East, we propose the rise of a new axis of power, as Syria’s reintegration into the Middle East after the fall of the Assad regime is making the country the linchpin of a new corridor of trade, influence, and power between Turkiye and the Gulf Arab states, bypassing both Iran and Israel. Syria’s new government now has the opportunity to activate once latent regional drivers to power Syria’s economic development, activating cross-Mesopotamian and Levantine markets, the Turkish-Gulf corridor, and more broadly, bringing together the parallel routes running across Central Asia and through the Indian Ocean through Syria’s ports and land routes. The Syrian state must develop the bureaucratic capacity to activate and manage these drivers, on top of which Syria becomes a new engine of growth in the region. Whether the corridor can be maintained to enable this development will depend on the willingness of Syria’s new sponsors in the Gulf and Turkiye to ensure Syria’s stability and security.
In Syria Unlocks a New Age of Middle Eastern Rail, we recover the lost history of regional rail and how it could make a comeback to play a key role in the new corridor emerging in the Middle East. The story of Middle Eastern rail interconnectivity began as a short-lived imperial project in the final days of the Ottoman Empire. The post-imperial period has seen poor regional connectivity, with development largely focused domestically, and rail often relegated to a secondary role. With Syria’s reintegration into the regional order and diligent work by the Syrian Ministry of Transport in cooperation with fellow ministers in countries such as Turkiye, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, the Syrian government seeks to revive the prospects of rail interconnectivity across the region. One day, trains may run from Istanbul to Muscat.
In The Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean, we provide a brief overview of the Indian Ocean, once the world’s most important arena for trade before the rise of Europe and the Atlantic. This region is once again becoming a prize for competing powers and infrastructure projects. In this competition, numerous powers, including India, China, the US, the Gulf Arab states, and beyond, are competing to secure trade routes, military bases, and political influence.
What Else to Expect
Over the coming months, expect a series of reports on Turkiye, examining President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s “grand strategy” for the country, Selcuk Bayraktar’s innovations in drone production and warfare, Turkiye’s burgeoning military-industrial complex, and more. Turkiye is one of the most important middle powers to emerge in the multipolar landscape, seeking to carve out its own regional zone of influence in its near abroad.
Erroneously labelled as ‘neo-Ottomanism’, Turkiye’s quest for sovereignty as a modern state has been a work in motion since the founding of the Republic in 1923. The country’s leadership seeks a new regional order that guarantees Turkish sovereignty, is based not on imperialism (although there is plenty of aesthetic imperial nostalgia), but on the creation of a league of stable states bound by mutual interest, and backed by Turkiye’s military heft.
The six Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Oman – have deployed their vast energy resources to the assiduous cultivation of power. Of these six states, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have acquired central positions in the global landscape of trade, finance, and power. Vizier will publish more reports on these countries, looking at some of the key individuals, institutions, and firms driving change in the Arab Gulf and beyond, including:
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, the logistics of the Hajj, and Aramco’s evolving role;
The UAE’s maritime empire through DP World, Tahnoun Bin Zayed’s AI and cloud technology drive, and the UAE’s geopolitical strategy of ports, mercenaries, and trade across Africa and Asia;
Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund: the Qatar Investment Authority, the development of Al-Jazeera and its vast media empire, and the covert role of Moza bint Nasser, mother of the current Qatari Emir and founder of the Qatar Foundation;
Oman’s quietly consequential foreign policy;
General prospects for desalination, and solar and nuclear power across the Arab Gulf;
General prospects for the space industry across MENA.
The Road Ahead
Vizier shows a MENA on the move. However, the region cannot be understood without considering global trends such as the shift of power and trade towards the East and the collapse of the US-led liberal world order. Multipolarity is here, and it is in the Middle East where the US has decided to repudiate its drive for unipolar dominance and beat an imperial retreat. The Israeli-US war on Iran signals not just an end to US global power but also the liberal world order it created after WWII.
In 2025, neighbours now look upon each other with fear and greed. The old norms and rules of conduct seemingly no longer apply to war and diplomacy. Old borders are mere formalities, and states that exist by benevolence of the post-war desire to create a neatly delineated Westphalian order, but in reality existing only on paper, will see their existence hollowed out by neighbours who possess a sovereign animus and the bureaucratic and military apparatus with which to enforce this sovereignty.
Where analysis on multipolarity has largely revolved around the US and China, Vizier believes that some of the most interesting case studies are taking place in the increasingly important ‘middle power’ states. While lacking the economic heft of the US and China, these middle powers exhibit characteristics such as robust state sovereignty, strategic agility to enforce or expand that sovereignty, and a newfound desire to create their own regional hegemonies in which they can arbitrage the relationship – and widening gulf – between the world’s two economic poles: the US and China.
More than ever, we require a hard-nosed appraisal of reality, driven not by normative beliefs of how politics ought to be, but how it is. Thus, our emphasis is on empirical analysis backed by an unapologetically realist theory of political action that assumes the relentless pursuit of power. Over the coming months, Vizier will publish reports outside the strict confines of the MENA region, exploring the emergence of multipolarity from the Straits of Gibraltar to Malacca. This ‘Middle Belt’ girdles Africa and Eurasia, and is where the tectonic shifts driven by multipolarity will be harshest, and where the contours of the new ‘world system’ will become apparent. Understanding the Middle Belt, the central position of MENA within it, and the general rise of middle powers pursuing regional hegemony can only be understood within the broader context of multipolarity.
Vizier is here to analyse these developments, not as general and undifferentiated blocs running on generalised assumptions, but as concrete units of analysis across a granular landscape occupied by individuals, institutions, firms, and bureaucracies; all play key roles in shifting the strategic landscape of trade, industry, and power in their respective countries and regions.
Thank you for reading Vizier.